Yoshinobu Yamamoto Is The Most Gorgeous Pitching Prospect I’ve Never Actually Seen Pitch
To be fair I’ve watched a fair amount. Highlights. Clips. A couple innings this past season to get a feel for the league. Obviously a handful of World Baseball Classic starts. But generally speaking, if we’re being honest then the honest truth is that I haven’t seen enough to empirically back up my confidence. And even so, I don’t really care at this point in the talent evaluation cycle. Based on a handful of clips alone, I’m willing to call this man the most gorgeous pitching prospect with the least amount of comparable certainty.
Whatever. I know it when I see it.
We should address some bad stuff. There isn’t a lot, but it exists and mostly revolves around size. He’s listed at 5’10 and 176 pounds, which is probably accurate. I don’t think Yamamoto is the kinda guy to overstate 5’9 or like about 165. At that point, we’re really splitting hairs. Point is he’s undersized and that carries water for a reason.
There were 608 pitchers in the 2023 season. Exactly 8 were listed at 5’10 and nobody shorter. So instantly Yamamoto is in the bottom 1.4% of the league in height. On the scale, there’s 546 thiccer guys putting him in the bottom 10%. The combination together is arguably the smallest pitcher in the entire league.
Injury concerns follow, naturally. But so does performance risk that the pitches flatten out. That he can’t carry the weight of a starting pitcher’s load and MLB’s overall quality will add to the stress of each pitch which adds over time. There’s a whole list of related issues that could follow, and that’s easily the biggest question to me.
But then you look at the mechanics.
A quick glance and you should immediately disarm injury concerns. His arm action is so quick and short and tight. His lower half is so perfectly aligned with his release. The repeatability and consistency is off the charts. If we were talking golf swings, then we’re talking about Rory McIlroy levels of torque and power.
An objectively small athlete using every ounce of his athleticism to create repeatable power. That’s what I think of with Rory and it’s similar to Yamamoto.
Another undersized pitcher that always jumps out is Tim Lincecum. He had a crazy lever-style delivery that was alarmingly max effort at all times. It helped throw a plus plus changeup along with other devastating pitches. But it also tore his rotator cuff in half, tragically. In comparison, Yamamoto has a much cleaner delivery.
A more apt comparison could be Pedro Martinez, which is a sacrilegious statement at best. At worst, I’m a complete fucking moron for even considering these guys in the same sentence. But I’m being honest. I’m speaking from the heart here.
You’ve got elite control of multiple pitches. You can throw multiple pitches for quality strikes even and behind the count. You’ve got an elite swing-and-miss pitch that can be used to get out of the worst jams. The absurd ability to throw 1st pitch strikes without getting hit early in the count. A seemingly rubber arm that works off a powerful set of butt cheeks. The guy fields his position, competes his dick off and wants to dominate the best players in the world.
Pedro’s a top 10 pitcher all time. Yamamoto hasn’t thrown a pitch in MLB yet. I understand the absurdity of this comparison, but like I said. I honestly feel it’s appropriate to consider the furthest end of the spectrum with Yamamoto. There’s a solid chance he quickly proves to be worth the hype.
The other end of the spectrum is far less likely. He could have issues adjusting to the balls. Or the environments and travel schedule and some other soft stuff. Maybe it takes him off the rails or maybe he never gets settled. Maybe things just don’t work out.
The chances of that happening are slim to none, but I have to recognize the counter to a Pedro-like debut.
The reality is probably closer to All Star production and a lot of 7 inning starts. Think of Senga at his best but with less control/command issues that render him so inefficient. A lot of the good with so little of the bad. That’s my read on Yamamoto.
The fastball has life. The breaking balls are different but similar. He pitches to all parts of the zone. He can work soft contact early. He can get back-to-back strikeouts in a jam. He’s got the mix and command to dominate the same lineup multiple times in a season. He’s polished, proven and rarely surrenders extra base hits. Everything you’d want in a pitcher, this guy has it and there’s the softest learning curve.
For these reasons, you have to consider him a $30-35M arm and you have to believe the price tag easily blows over $250M. The rumors of $300M are more valid the more I talk this out, especially if we’re deferring contracts to 2060 now.
Insane?
Yes. That’s an insane amount of money for a guy that hasn’t done shit in the big leagues.
But using my brain. Reading the situation. Considering the market and overwhelming downward trend away from quality, healthy starting pitchers. If we can do that then we can agree this guy’s destined to be an ace for a long time. And come October, the last thing you’ll be worried about is the price tag. I’m convinced he’s that special.
And personal bias aside, I sincerely hope he ends up in New York. Either on the games biggest stage or in front of the league's most tortured fans. That's by far the best way to start his career and I won't let you tell me otherwise.